Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.006803 0.007671 0.008608 0.009697 0.010926 0.012272 0.013859
2025-12-28 0.005569 0.006796 0.008230 0.010034 0.012243 0.014864 0.018218
2026-01-04 0.004823 0.006215 0.007935 0.010219 0.013180 0.016897 0.021931
2026-01-11 0.004321 0.005822 0.007761 0.010455 0.014113 0.018921 0.025747
2026-01-18 0.003827 0.005357 0.007412 0.010380 0.014575 0.020313 0.028799
2026-01-25 0.003452 0.005000 0.007152 0.010370 0.015085 0.021769 0.032027
2026-02-01 0.003095 0.004624 0.006817 0.010203 0.015326 0.022832 0.034744
2026-02-08 0.002855 0.004391 0.006657 0.010262 0.015885 0.024377 0.038285
2026-02-15 0.002614 0.004128 0.006424 0.010178 0.016202 0.025562 0.041349
2026-02-22 0.002472 0.004005 0.006390 0.010392 0.016989 0.027524 0.045797
2026-03-01 0.002230 0.003700 0.006040 0.010064 0.016867 0.028006 0.047839
2026-03-08 0.002044 0.003468 0.005787 0.009869 0.016937 0.028794 0.050441
2026-03-15 0.001855 0.003218 0.005489 0.009579 0.016833 0.029298 0.052632
2026-03-22 0.001792 0.003179 0.005544 0.009902 0.017821 0.031761 0.058524
2026-03-29 0.001712 0.003102 0.005523 0.010086 0.018569 0.033854 0.063916
2026-04-05 0.001645 0.003043 0.005531 0.010319 0.019420 0.036194 0.069968
2026-04-12 0.001540 0.002904 0.005381 0.010245 0.019689 0.037470 0.074080
2026-04-19 0.001452 0.002792 0.005270 0.010235 0.020075 0.038991 0.078794
2026-04-26 0.001353 0.002648 0.005088 0.010070 0.020141 0.039891 0.082328
2026-05-03 0.001288 0.002568 0.005022 0.010128 0.020653 0.041707 0.087890
2026-05-10 0.001213 0.002459 0.004892 0.010045 0.020870 0.042938 0.092325
2026-05-17 0.001175 0.002424 0.004905 0.010256 0.021709 0.045507 0.099844
2026-05-24 0.001084 0.002273 0.004672 0.009933 0.021392 0.045629 0.102012